Debt Limit Negotiations Continue
On Tuesday, the House passed its “Cut, Cap and Balance” legislation which would cut government spending now, cap it in the future and approve a constitutional amendment to balance the federal budget. On Friday, the Senate voted to table a motion to consider the measure. However, after another tense week of negotiations between the Senate Republicans, Senate Democrats, House Republicans, House Democrats, and the President Obama, the outline of a purported deal seemed to emerge late Thursday. Congressional Democrats reported that President Obama discussed with them a deal he had reached with Speaker John Boehner to raise the debt ceiling by $2.4 trillion, enough to get through the 2012 elections, with at least as much in immediate spending cuts and a promise of “tax reform” in 2012. On Friday, in response to the news of a “deal,” Speaker Boehner told the House Republican Conference there was “no deal,” but that he will continue to negotiate with the White House over the weekend. The most important questions remaining are how many House Republicans will vote for a deal that does not include immediate tax increases but does include the promise of broader “tax reform” next year and how many House Democrats will vote for a deal with no tax increases.
Greece Gets Another Bailout
On Thursday, European finance ministers agreed to a new $157 billion financial aid package for Greece in exchange for forcing Greece’s bond holders to accept a bond exchange that gives them less than originally promised. The new plan for Greece will provide for the euro zone’s bailout fund and the International Monetary Fund to lend Greece $157 billion over the next three years at 3.5% interest. Private creditors who hold Greek debt that matures in the coming years will “voluntarily” turn in their bonds and accept new ones that mature far in the future.
The EU also agreed Thursday to an expansion of its bailout fund. That vehicle, once restricted to lending to countries near the brink of collapse, will now be able to buy euro-zone bonds on secondary markets to move prices and lend directly to countries even before they lose access to private funding and could even include lending to finance bank recapitalizations. The leaders also agreed to cut the once-lofty interest rates that the bailout fund charges and extend to as much as 30 years the maturities of the loans it provides. Ireland and Portugal, both currently receiving European aid, will get breaks on their interest rates to 3.5%. Ireland was paying around 6% on the EU portion of its euro 67.5 billion bailout.
Treasury Sells Off Remaining Stake of Chrysler
On Thursday, the Treasury Department sold its remaining stake in Chrysler losing a total of $1.3 billion. Italian automaker Fiat purchased the U.S. government’s remaining 6% stake in Chrysler for $560 million, formally concluding the $12.5-billion bailout.
Suit Against Goldman Dismissed
On Thursday, former Australian hedge fund Basis Yield Alpha’s legal challenge to Goldman Sachs’ infamous Timberwolf 2007-1 collateralized debt obligation was dismissed by Judge Barbara Jones of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. Jones cited a Supreme Court decision that held that U.S. securities-fraud laws apply only to domestic transactions.
Senate Banking Hearing on One Year Anniversary of Dodd-Frank
On Thursday, in a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, federal banking regulators testified on the implementation of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act. Regulators said they are moving fast enough to give markets certainty, but slow enough to get hundreds of new rules right. A handful of regulatory agencies are writing hundreds of new rules to police the swaps market, reduce risk at the biggest financial firms, and bring the so-called shadow banking system — which includes hedge funds and non-traditional lenders — into the traditional regulatory framework. The SEC and CFTC have struggled to keep pace with the swift rule-writing timeline laid out in Dodd-Frank, and are months behind schedule on many key rules. However, in a surprising move, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said federal bank regulators may rethink their crackdown on derivatives if a global agreement cannot be reached on margin requirements thereby acknowledging that U.S. banks would be at a significant competitive disadvantage if their foreign rivals do not have to demand margin, or collateral, for derivatives trades.
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Q1 GDP Slows to 1.8%
On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the U.S. GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2011 slowed to an annual rate of 1.8 percent, compared to a rate of 3.1 percent in fourth quarter 2010 and 3.7 percent in first quarter 2010. The Bureau cited a combination of lower-than-expected economic data, global energy uncertainty, and concerns about the budget deficit as causes of the growth rate decelerating.
Bernanke Announces Rates to Stay at Near Zero, Ends Bond Buying Program
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke held his first quarterly press conference in which he said that the economy and job market are improving moderately, but the housing market and other factors such as gas prices continue to be a drag on growth. He announced that the Fed plans to end the $600 billion treasury bond-buying program in June and will leave interest rates at their current levels. The event followed a two-day meeting of the Fed’s policymaking committee at which the central bank indicated continuity in its strategy. The Fed’s bond buying program known as the second round of quantitative easing, or “QE2,” will expire as scheduled at the end of June. The Fed also maintained its near-zero target for short-term interest rates, where it has been since December 2008, and indicated that it expects to keep rates “exceptionally low” for “an extended period.”
Debt Ceiling Vote
The vote to increase the U.S. government’s borrowing ceiling beyond the current limit of $14 trillion has become the hot topic in Congress. While the Treasury Department’s original estimate was that the ceiling would need to be raised by mid-May, the Department is now saying it could hold out till July but would need to take extraordinary measures. While the measure is expected to easily pass the Senate, the question remains whether the House can pass such a bill. House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) said this week that he will not guarantee a vote on bill to raise the debt limit, much less passage of such a bill, without cuts in discretionary spending and alterations of entitlements such as Medicare and Medicaid. Congress returns next week from its two week recess, and House Republicans plan to hold a series of meetings to gather feedback from their Members about the debt ceiling.
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Japan Announces Disaster Relief Fund
On Friday, Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda announced a 4 trillion yen ($48.5 billion) emergency budget for disaster relief in the wake of the nuclear crisis triggered by the March tsunami. Noda said the government would not issue new bonds to pay for the fund, and the cabinet plans to submit the emergency budget to parliament on April 28. Given that the material damage alone from the disaster could top $300 billion, the government is expected to seek additional future disaster funding that will likely require tax increases and debt financing.
Justice Department Examines NYSE/Nasdaq/ICE Merger
On Wednesday, Nasdaq-OMX CEO Robert Greifeld and ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher disclosed in a letter to NYSE Euronext’s board that they are in discussions with the antitrust division of the Justice Department (DOJ) after buying NYSE Euronext stock which triggered the DOJ’s antitrust review. The letter also disclosed that Nasdaq-OMX and ICE are willing to pay NYSE Euronext $350 million if DOJ blocks their proposed takeover, an offer they say is now based on “fully committed financing” of $3.8 billion.
On April 10, NYSE Euronext ’s board rejected the Nasdaq/ICE unsolicited $11.3 billion proposal and affirmed its February agreement to merge with Deutsche Boerse AG for $9.5 billion in stock. The agreement with Deutsche Boerse includes a payout of 250 million euros ($358 million) should that deal fall apart. NYSE Euronext acknowledged that it had received the Nasdaq/ICE reverse break up free proposal and that its board is reviewing the matter.
S&P Changes U.S. Long Term Rating from Stable to Negative
On Monday, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services (S&P) changed its outlook on the U.S. long-term credit rating from stable to negative because ” the U.S. has relative to its ‘AAA’ peers very large budget deficits, rising government indebtedness, and the path to addressing these is not clear.” While the S&P affirmed the U.S. ‘AAA’ long-term and ‘A-1+’ short-term sovereign credit ratings, it also predicted at least a one-in-three chance that it could lower its long-term rating on the U.S. within two years because of the increased risk that the political negotiations over when and how to address both the medium and long-term fiscal challenges will persist until at least after the elections in 2012.
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Warren Interviews AGs for Consumer Protection Agency
Reports this week indicate that Elizabeth Warren, who is interim head of the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, has interviewed four Democratic state attorneys general to be her permanent successor. The four AGs reportedly in the running are Tom Miller of Iowa, Lisa Madigan of Illinois, Roy Cooper of North Carolina and Martha Coakley of Massachusetts. The bureau is scheduled to officially start work on July 21. Under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act, which President Obama signed in July, the bureau must have a Senate-confirmed director to perform certain functions such as the supervision and regulation of non-bank financial firms.
House Republicans Release Top Line Budget Numbers
With President Obama set to release his FY 2012 budget on February 14, House Republican leaders on Thursday announced they would seek $32 billion in spending cuts from the resolution currently funding the government. Republicans framed their proposal as cutting $74 billion from President Obama’s 2011 budget request. However, because Obama’s budget was never approved by the last Congress, the cuts would actually be made against a continuing resolution now funding the government. That resolution is to expire on March 4, and if lawmakers do not agree on another short-term measure or one funding the government for the rest of the year, they risk a government shutdown. The spending ceiling announced by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) represents a $58 billion cut in non-security discretionary funding. While details of the specific department cuts were not announced on Thursday, the House Appropriations Committee next week will release its bill detailing the specific department budgets based on the spending ceiling. Reports indicate that the Democratic majority in the Senate is opposed to the House Republican budget cuts.
TARP Program Breaks Even with Fifth Third Bank Repayment
On Thursday, the Treasury Department announced that Fifth Third Bank has now fully repaid its $3.4 billion in TARP loans and that total repayments and other income from programs within TARP (approximately $243 billion) have nearly surpassed total disbursements under those programs (approximately $245 billion). The Treasury Department also announced that current estimates indicate that bank programs within TARP will ultimately provide a profit of nearly $20 billion to taxpayers.
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Kaufman To Replace Warren At TARP
On Thursday, Senator Harry Reid (D-NV) announced that Senator Ted Kaufman (D-DE) was appointed to replace Elizabeth Warren as chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel for the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Kaufman was appointed to fill then-Senator Joe Biden’s remaining two years of his Senate term after being elected Vice President. Kaufman will serve until a new Senator from Delaware is sworn in on November 15
Dodd-Frank Implementation Delayed
On Wednesday, Congress passed a spending bill to fund government operations through early December and then recessed until after the November election. However, requested budget increases for financial regulators were not included in the spending bill, which will likely result in the delay in implementation of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act until 2011. The funding shortage would be particularly impactful on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission, which will be responsible for oversight of the over-the-counter derivatives market. Republicans, who overwhelmingly voted against the Dodd-Frank law, are poised for significant gains in the elections. If Republicans win a majority in either chamber, they have promised to block the requested funding increases for the SEC and CFTC in order to hamper the law’s implementation.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Deputy Treasury Secretary Neal Wolin, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Shapiro, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler, and FDIC Chairman Sheila Behr indicated to the Senate Banking Committee that their agencies will work together to ensure the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act is implemented effectively. However, Republicans questioned whether the regulators had too much power to design and implement the new regulatory structure. Behr testified that the FDIC delayed a vote on its first major rulemaking for the law this week, and Gensler testified that a list of rules his agency must pass for derivatives markets will not be ready for statute-imposed deadlines. Overall, the bill requires the regulators to write more than 500 rules, conduct 81 studies, and submit 93 reports in coming years.
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June 4, 2010 Issue 21
Financial Regulatory Reform Bill
The House and Senate were out of session this week due to the Memorial Day District Work Period. Consequently, the debate on financial reform remained mostly quiet, although committee staffers began the process of working with the White House and the Treasury Department to reconcile the differences between the House and Senate bills. On Tuesday, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) said he was confident that a bill will be on President Obama’s desk by the Fourth of July. He also said he would like to see as many as seven conference committee meetings – broadcast by C-Span, ideally – with amendments voted on individually in open sessions. The initial work of the committee is expected to start next week and last through the end of the month.
May Jobs Report Released
On Friday, the Department of Labor released the May jobs report showing the U.S. economy added 431,000 jobs in May. However, only 41,000 of those jobs were from the private sector, and the remaining 411,000 were a result of temporary government jobs in the U.S. Census Bureau. The unemployment rate fell from 9.9% to 9.7%. Taking into account revisions to prior months, the U.S. economy added an average of nearly 200,000 jobs per month in the January-May period. In May, employment in professional and business services rose by 22,000. Manufacturing continued to trend up, rising by 29,000. Construction, a sector of the economy that remains soft, lost 35,000 jobs in May.
G20 Meeting In South Korea
On Friday, the meeting of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors began in South Korea’s southeastern port city of Busan. The meeting’s agenda focuses on global cooperation to improve financial and fiscal soundness. At the meeting’s outset, sources indicated the ministers would delay the implementation of tougher international banking regulations known as “Basel III,” which were due to be finalized by November. Disagreements over the regulations include the scale, scope, and timing of the increases in capital and liquidity banks will be required to hold, as well as the leverage they will be allowed. The U.S. and U.K. are pushing for tougher standards, but western and central European countries are opposing the stricter measures. Sources indicated that the U.K. and the U.S. are offering to delay the implementation of the Basel III reforms in a bid to ensure that the principles do not get watered down. Sources also indicated that France and Germany are seeking to reopen arguments thought to be settled last year in a bid to dilute capital requirements for their banks by allowing them to include deferred tax assets and minority interests in tier one capital. The Basel III rules were originally expected to be phased in by the end of 2012, but sources familiar with the discussions said that the new rules are now likely to be put in place between 2014 and 2016.
Financial Regulatory Reform Bill
On Monday, the Senate resumed its consideration of S. 3217 the Restoring American Financial Stability Act of 2010. The Senate rejected an amendment sponsored by Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) which would have limited further bailouts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and passed an amendment sponsored by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) that protects United States taxpayers from paying for the bailouts of foreign governments. On Tuesday, the Senate adopted an amendment sponsored by Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) that limits the powers of state attorneys general to enforce consumer financial regulations, permits state attorneys general to enforce consumer regulations against any state-licensed or chartered bank but limits their powers to enforce regulations on national banks that are prescribed by the new consumer protection office, and removes a requirement that the federal government, prior to preempting states, must find an applicable substantive standard. The Senate rejected an amendment sponsored by Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) that would have banned naked credit default swaps but passed an amendment sponsored by Sens. Charles Grassley (R-IA) and Claire McCaskill (D-MO) that prevents inspectors general at five financial regulatory agencies, namely the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the National Credit Union Administration, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, from becoming presidential appointments. On Wednesday, the Senate rejected a cloture motion sponsored by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) to end debate on the bill and also rejected an amendment sponsored by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) that would have forced lenders to abide by state-mandated caps on interest rates. Current federal regulations allow credit card companies to follow interest rate caps of the states in which they are located, rather than those prescribed by their customers’ home states. On Thursday, the Senate reconsidered and passed a cloture motion sponsored by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) to end debate on the bill before passing the bill itself by a vote of 59-39.
The bill now proceeds to a House-Senate conference where the two bodies will iron out the substantial differences between their two bills. The key issues on which the House and Senate bills deviate are the new consumer financial protection agency, the regulation of auto dealers, over-the-counter derivatives, and the “Volcker Rule.” Regarding a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency, the Senate bill would move a proposed consumer protection agency into the Federal Reserve and the House bill would create it as a stand-alone agency with more leeway to implement regulations. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) have both voiced their strong support for keeping the House-passed language in the final version of the bill.